One of the things about being a consultant I’ve always found curious is that it’s not unusual to have contacts reach out and ask your opinion.
Now I acknowledge that why someone would think that I would be a good person to ask about Generative AI is in itself a good topic for a future discussion, for now however let’s address the question posed.
The question was simple – “Is this Gen AI thing real or just another fad?”
To which my response was “Both”.
Not perhaps a particularly useful answer so my questioner asked me to expand and so I did so.
I referred them to the Gartner Hype Cycle as the answer and sent them here (way better than a 2×2 btw):
That wasn’t quite expansive enough for them so they asked me to explain what that had to do with their question.
During my time, I have had personal dealings with a number of technology ‘fads’:
- Programming;
- The Internet;
- Dotcom;
- Digital;
- Machine Learning;
- Cloud Computing;
- Generative AI.
In all of the above, something new came along that was going to solve everything, then it didn’t, then enough folk spent enough money and gave it enough attention to ensure that it did some things really well. Finally, everyone started to make it their new way of doing those things and the market moved on to the next new thing.
Gartner has given names to each of these phases and speaking to clients and colleagues, I think we are leaving the phase when we thought Generative AI was going to even make us a coffee whilst it did all our work for us (what Gartner calls ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations’), to now where the first early Gen AI start-ups are going bust and that Capucinno froth has turned into a bad Latte (what Gartner calls ‘Trough of Disillusionment’).
If this is about right then we have about 3-6 months coming our way on how Gen AI is overblown and how organizations have been taken in. To which my steer to my questioner was two-fold:
First, that the value of new technologies is always governed by the number of practical use cases they can be applied to. This is a process of exploration, not a state. Therefore, the use cases that generated the initial excitement in the early days may not be the same use cases for which that technology may eventually be invested in ubiquitously. Be cautious about anyone making bold claims unless they can explicitly point to where they have done it before. There will be a lot of pioneering going on out there at present and as a buyer you want to be watchful that you’re not paying someone to figure out how to do something that they can then sell to others.
Second, that the nature of that process, the focus and the investment that it requires, in itself creates a reality behind any marketing that may have come before it. Once the market starts to believe in an idea, it generates its own momentum. Test and Learn will apply, start-ups will come and start-ups will go, and the market as a whole will figure out what works and what doesn’t. Along the way, whatever was behind the initial success will be built upon and developed.
Hence, ‘Both’.
So this isn’t really about Gen AI; it is about the path of new technologies in the market and the importance of keeping perspective as a buyer.
History repeating; a pattern. Take it away, Shirley.
